left to my own devices – occasional thoughts on higher education

I paused for quite a while after writing, and before publishing, my last post.  Using the word ‘stupid’ is harsh, and I worried that it was a little too much so.

Ultimately though I decided to publish. While the post’s jumping off point was a quote of someone labelling a group as ‘stupid’, I thought that by the end of the post it was fairly clear it was the act (failing to be honest about the consequences of further restricting student visas), and not a person or group of people, that I was describing in that way.

times change

Of course following that post we had the reports that the government had pulled back from the extreme restrictions that were being advocated by parts of the Tory party.  Clearly that stepping back was welcome, and today we’ve had it formally confirmed.

So now we’re waiting to find out if the gears will be crunched and the car thrown into another reverse, with the Tory party including in its manifesto the severe restrictions on student visas that over the last week the PM has floated, but ultimately been unable to get through his cabinet.

governing and campaigning

The types of student visa restrictions that may be being considered for the Tory election manifesto (given that while the ONS announcement of net migration figures shows a fall, net migration is still at a level that causes blood pressure to rise in the Tory Party), would of course be an act of studipidity for a government, for exactly the same reasons I thought they would earlier in the week: a wilful failure to be clear about and acknowledge the consequences.  But the key word in that sentence is government.

We’re now in that strange netherworld where, yes, we still have a government but little governing goes on.  The Tories are now almost entirely a political party, rather than a government. And consequently they can focus entirely on the politics, rather than having to concern themselves with, or choose to ignore, the bothersome issue of implementation.

And in that context something that was stupid for a government, may make good political sense for a party. Particularly a party that is desperately trying to avoid electoral oblivion by shoring up its right wing, socially conservative base; and crucially will almost certainly never have to face the consequences of implementing what it is proposing.

playing the odds

There is a small chance that come 5 July we will have another Tory government, in the same way that there is a small chance that by that date I will have become a millionaire courtesy of a premium bonds win.  Neither of these amount to a robust planning assumption.

From 5 July the sector will be operating in a very different political, policy and governmental context.  We’re almost certainly looking at a Labour-led government, even if we don’t know what type: a minority administration, coalition, modest parliamentary majority or possibly even a landslide – all of which remain possible outcomes.  Certainly much more possible than the Tories being in government come 5 July.

For higher education this will amount to a significant shift – engaging with a government led by a political party whose centre of gravity isn’t suspicion of, and hostility towards, to the sector.

And of course higher education has been preparing for this.  For quite a while sector lobbying has focused as much if not more on the Labour opposition as it has on the Tory government, even while being well aware that a change in the party of government doesn’t mean the sector will now get everything it needs and wants.

a changing of the guard

There has been a lot of focus on how a Labour government would approach the significant challenges facing higher education.  It feels that the volume of speculation significantly exceeds the amount of solid information we have, and I’m not convinced that the coming election campaign is going to do much to change this. The section on higher education in the Labour manifesto is likely to be a model of minimalism.

There’s another uncertainty though, that I think has received less attention.

In six weeks’ time we’re likely to see the first change in the party of government in 14 years.  Since 2010 higher education has adapted to, and then taken as read, the party of government. And there has been an ecosystem that has informed this government’s higher education policy.

Key elements of that will remain the same following the election – UUK, the mission groups, HEPI etc.  Another significant element will, though, change.  At that point the network of right wing think tanks (e.g. Policy Exchange, Centre for Policy Studies, Onward) that have provided a stream of ideas, briefing and lobbying to the current government on higher education, will find their influence very significantly reduced if not almost entirely extinguished.

what’s next?

Of course some of what has emanated from those think tanks has had little direct influence.  Some of it, however, has (think for example of the Higher Education (Free Speech) Act, and the links to the earlier Policy Exchange report on this issue).  They have also made a significant amount of the weather for the development of government higher education policy.  And the work of these think tanks has in many ways reflected and incubated the hostility towards the sector that has become the dominant (though far from sole) strand in the modern Tory party.

The question is, as the influence of these think tanks decline what will take their place?

Which intellectual and policy voices (alongside the perennial influences such as UUK, the mission groups and HEPI etc.) will shape the higher education policy debate?  Who will be admitted to, or at least near to, the inner sanctum of those with influence on the crucial decisions that shape where our sector goes? It’s a crucial question as, if not more, important than what gets included in the Labour election manifesto, and it will be interesting to see how this works out after 4 July.